Inverting the Trend, Maybe

The level of government response continues to increase each day. Many five stars hotels have been requested to stop accepting booking and prepare to host citizens repatriated from other countries.

Yesterday newspapers reported that a citizen has been stripped of his passport for failing to comply with mandatory stay at home notice.

We continue to maintain a high level of attention, following guidelines in terms of social gatherings and keeping a slightly bigger than normal food stock at home to overcome the consequences of panic hoarding.

Otherwise, the morale is high: we have been spared the pain that many other countries are enduring and I feel grateful for this. At the same time, I think it is important to comfort and relief the many dear people that live in Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland, and in general to be mindful that we have been lucky so far, but this can change anytime. We have to to be mentally prepared and ready to take the right actions should worse come to worst.

Today, for the first time my German class moves to online as an effect of measures rolled out by the government last week.

As anticipated in previous days, the number of daily new cases of Coronavirus in Italy reached the inflection point, the curve inverted and has now started to decrease. This is a good news, although hundreds of persons still die every day. The number of people infected by Coronavirus in Italy is still increasing, but at a slower rate. Looking at the charts, I believe it is reasonable to think that it may start to decrease in 5-10 days from today.

From today, we will be looking at a different chart, shown below.

The red line in the chart is the moving average over one week of the daily decrease of total number of infected people. The decrease is caused by people healing or unfortunately dying.

The orange line is the moving average over one week of the daily increase of total number of infected people. It is the same orange line I described in past days and represents an average of new daily cases.

The green line is the difference between the orange line and the red line. When and if the orange line will meet the red line, the average increase of total cases will have equaled the average decrease. Eventually, the red line will cross above the orange line and the green line will enter negative territory; from that point on, the total number of persons infected by Coronavirus in Italy will start to decrease.

The main indicator that we need to look at in these days, is how steep the green line is headed downwards: the steeper, the better. Let’s cross fingers and hope to see a steep downward slope.


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