What Would we Bring on a Desert Island

As I reported yesterday, new measures will be implemented next Tuesday to slow down the Coronavirus outbreak. The key points are highlighted in the first infographic below, while the others list services that are defined as essential and will continue to be granted.

Yesterday’s prime minister speech reached out to the majority of the population. Immediately after, people started debating on its implications and like in previous occasions, an enthusiastic toilet paper hoarding run ensued.

COVID-19 highlighted how countries react differently to a scary and massive threat, depending on cultural aspects, the leadership style of their rulers, their form of government. But if there is something that seems to be bringing humanity together in these hard days, regardless of any form of diversity, that one thing is the primal fear to die of starvation and without having been able to properly wipe ourselves. 

Coronavirus keeps slowing down in Italy. I previously forecasted that the number of infected people may have started to decrease around the 10th of April, but we will have to wait a little longer. Let’s look at the latest chart.

The green line, representing the average difference of new cases and closed cases, is still headed down. Its value today is around 2700 and in the last days it has been decreasing of around 250 units per day. I was expecting that the red line representing the average sum of deaths and healed patients, would increase faster as more and more people who tested positive in the previous days died or healed, but for some reason that does not seem to be happening. Given the latest dynamics depicted by the chart, Italy should reach the peak number of infected people in around 10-12 days.


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